New Delhi, August 22, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
Gold and silver could witness substantial gains as fiscal dominance and changing real yields reshape the global macroeconomic outlook, according to a report by Vallum Capital.
The report said the recent correction in precious metals had primarily repriced ownership rather than undermining the broader investment case for accumulating gold and silver. It identified a 2 per cent real-yield threshold and a reversing US Dollar Index as structural indicators pointing towards a durable shift rather than a temporary market pattern.
“The US Fed is structurally boxed in: hiking raises the cost of servicing $9.2 trillion in rollovers, and holding leaves real rates negative at the front end with CPI above target,” the report said.
Vallum Capital argued that either policy path could contribute to currency debasement, describing this as the underlying setup that gold has historically reflected across previous cycles.
The report highlighted strong central-bank demand for gold. Central banks purchased 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, representing a 411 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. This came even as Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows stood at 44.8 tonnes and jewellery demand declined 17 per cent.
Silver, meanwhile, has historically outperformed gold by a significant margin during sustained gold rallies, the report said.
In the current 2021-2026 cycle, silver has gained 263 per cent compared with gold’s 164 per cent, giving silver a 99-percentage-point advantage. Despite the strong performance, the gold-silver ratio remains at around 69, compared with its long-term median range of 45 to 50, according to the report.
The report also noted that following Kevin Warch’s nomination as Federal Reserve chairman, gold declined by 25-30 per cent, reducing that year’s new inflows by nearly Rs 23,000-28,000 crore on a mark-to-market basis.
Gold subsequently recovered from approximately $4,196 to around $4,359, which, the report said, reaffirmed ETFs and gold funds as the fastest-growing retail access routes to the precious metal despite periods of volatility.
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