Is Europe safer than the US? A recent study by criminologists associated with University College London (UCL) has attempted to answer the question by comparing crime statistics from 20 affluent cities across Europe and North America.
The study, reported by The Economist, was led by Matt Ashby, Associate Professor of Crime Science at UCL’s Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, and his colleagues. The researchers sought to create a consistent basis for comparing crime levels across the two sides of the Atlantic.
The team selected 20 cities with populations of at least 2.5 million that publish annual crime statistics. City boundaries were adjusted to make population densities more comparable. For instance, Paris was assessed using the wider Île-de-France region. Crime categories were also harmonised as far as possible with British definitions.
Homicide was used as the most reliable cross-border measure. Chicago, with a population of about 2.74 million, emerged as the deadliest city in the study, recording 587 homicides in 2024, or 22 per 100,000 residents. That was 2.7 times the rate recorded in Los Angeles.
By comparison, the average homicide rate across the 10 European cities included in the study was 1.7 per 100,000 residents.
The differences were less pronounced for other categories. Personal robberies involving force occurred at broadly similar rates on both sides of the Atlantic, with London and Paris recording more than 300 incidents per 100,000 residents annually.
Vehicle theft was particularly common in Chicago and Los Angeles, while New York recorded a comparatively low rate. Domestic burglary, meanwhile, was more prevalent in European cities.
The Economist noted that differences in social safety nets, policing and incarceration rates could partly explain variations in crime patterns.
Ashby described the exercise as the “least-worst attempt” to make crime statistics comparable across countries, saying the data could help policymakers examine crime trends in greater detail.
The researchers also acknowledged difficulties caused by differences in crime reporting. Officially recorded rape offences in England and Wales have doubled over the past decade, while confidential surveys suggest the underlying level has remained relatively stable, potentially reflecting improved reporting.
Despite the differences, the study found reasons for optimism. Murder rates in London and New York are at historically low levels, while personal robbery in Paris has fallen by half over the past decade.
Overall, the findings suggest that cities on both sides of the Atlantic have become safer, friendlier and more vibrant compared with a generation ago.
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