Beijing, October 17, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
China’s refusal to engage in dialogue with the Dalai Lama reflects a calculated strategy to wait for his passing and seek control over the succession process, according to a report that warns the approach could instead intensify Tibetan resistance and strengthen international support for the Tibetan cause.
Khedroob Thondup, nephew of the 14th Dalai Lama, wrote in The Tibet Express that Beijing’s strategy rests on the expectation that the Tibetan exile community would weaken without the spiritual leader’s unifying presence, while international attention to Tibet would gradually fade.
“Beijing has consistently refused to negotiate with the Dalai Lama. This stance is not tactical indecision but a deliberate strategy: the Chinese leadership is playing a waiting game, anticipating that His Holiness’s passing will allow them to control succession and neutralise the Tibetan issue,” Thondup wrote.
He cautioned that although this approach could consolidate short-term authority, it also carried risks for political legitimacy, stability and China’s international relations.
According to Thondup, Beijing’s reluctance to enter into dialogue stems partly from concerns that negotiations could confer political legitimacy on the Dalai Lama, contradicting the Chinese government’s portrayal of him as a separatist figure.
He also argued that Chinese authorities fear that granting concessions to Tibet could encourage other minority regions to seek greater autonomy, posing a challenge to the country’s centralised governance system.
Another key element of Beijing’s approach, Thondup said, is its intention to appoint the next Dalai Lama through state-controlled mechanisms, thereby reinforcing the government’s claim to authority over religious affairs.
He outlined three assumptions underpinning what he described as Beijing’s waiting game: that the Tibetan exile community would fragment without the Dalai Lama’s leadership, that a state-appointed successor would undermine the legitimacy of a successor recognised by Tibetans in exile, and that global attention would diminish after the Dalai Lama’s passing.
However, Thondup argued that such calculations could underestimate the importance of spiritual authority in Tibetan Buddhism. Tibetan Buddhists across the world may refuse to recognise a successor appointed by the Chinese state, potentially weakening rather than strengthening Beijing’s influence over the succession process.
He further warned that disputes over the next Dalai Lama could galvanise international backing for Tibet instead of diminishing it. Coercive measures, he added, could deepen resentment and further alienate Tibetans.
Assessing the broader implications, Thondup said Beijing’s strategy might deliver short-term control but could come at the expense of long-term stability and China’s international reputation.
He stressed that maintaining unity and preparing for the succession would be crucial for Tibetans in exile as they respond to Beijing’s position. For the international community, he said, sustained engagement on religious freedom and cultural preservation would be essential to ensure that the succession issue did not unfold without scrutiny.
The succession of the Dalai Lama remains a sensitive issue involving religious authority, Tibetan identity and the competing positions of Beijing and the Tibetan exile community.
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