New Delhi, November 7, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
As Uttar Pradesh prepares for the 2027 Assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is once again facing difficulties in joining an anti-BJP alliance. This has raised questions about whether the party could influence the Opposition’s electoral prospects in some constituencies by contesting independently.
In Bihar, AIMIM leaders said they had sought a seat-sharing arrangement with the Mahagathbandhan ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections but were rebuffed. The party subsequently contested separately and won five seats in Muslim-dominated border areas.
Owaisi has reportedly expressed willingness to work with anti-BJP parties again, but appears to have faced resistance, particularly from the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led alliance. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav seems reluctant to enter into a formal arrangement with AIMIM, apparently seeking to prevent it from expanding its influence among Muslim voters.
AIMIM contested independently in the 2017 and 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Reports suggest that both the SP and Congress have distanced themselves from the party as Owaisi explores possible alliance options elsewhere.
The key difference between Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is the geographical concentration of AIMIM’s support. In Bihar, the party established a stronghold in Seemanchal, covering Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar districts. It first won five Assembly seats there in 2020 and repeated the performance in 2025.
AIMIM projected itself as an alternative voice for Muslims who felt neglected by the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Critics accused Owaisi of dividing Opposition votes, while the party maintained that it was filling a representational vacuum. Observers subsequently noted that AIMIM’s presence fragmented Opposition votes in parts of Seemanchal and affected the Mahagathbandhan’s ability to consolidate Muslim support.
Uttar Pradesh, however, has no comparable regional stronghold for AIMIM. Muslim voters are spread across Rohilkhand, western Uttar Pradesh, parts of Awadh and eastern districts. Since the 2022 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SP has emerged as the principal force consolidating anti-BJP Muslim votes.
The SP’s calculation appears to be that its support among Muslim voters remains strong and that bringing AIMIM into an alliance could strengthen a potential long-term rival within the same voter base.
Many Muslim voters are seen as prioritising electoral effectiveness over identity-based representation. This could make it difficult for Owaisi to persuade them that backing AIMIM would deliver meaningful political representation rather than weaken the Opposition’s electoral prospects.
However, constituencies in western Uttar Pradesh and districts bordering Nepal and Bihar, where Muslim populations are significant, could witness triangular contests if AIMIM fields strong candidates.
There have also been reports of discussions about a possible AIMIM alliance with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP under a proposed Dalit-Muslim or “Bhim-Meem” formula. However, the BSP is reportedly reluctant and has indicated a preference for contesting independently.
Even if an understanding is reached, its impact on Dalit voting remains uncertain. The BSP’s core Jatav support base has historically shown loyalty to Mayawati rather than alliance partners. Earlier experiments involving Dalit-Muslim combinations have rarely resulted in consistent vote transfers. Several non-Jatav Dalit groups have also shown changing voting preferences in recent elections, with sections moving towards the BJP.
The Bihar experience suggests that AIMIM does not need to dominate an entire state to influence electoral outcomes. A concentrated support base in a limited geographical area can be enough to affect results, even if the party does not win a large number of seats.
FOLLOW NOW
