New Delhi, June 5, 2026
India is expected to surpass China in terms of its share of global GDP measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2060, a report has said.
The report from Paris School of Economics (PSE)-based World Inequality Lab (WIL) said that China’s contribution to global GDP is likely to decline in the second half of the 21st century.
China’s share in world GDP currently around 20 per cent in PPP terms will remain large through the 2030s, but its rapidly falling population will weigh on its long‑run performance.
“China’s population share is falling very fast, from 23 per cent of the world population in 1945 to about 17 per cent in 2025 and less than 8 per cent in 2100,” report said.
Consequently, China’s share in world GDP is projected to decline in the second half of the 21st century be overtaken by India around 2060, it said.
Purchasing power parities (PPPs) measure the total amount of goods and services that a single unit of a country’s currency can buy in another country.
The report said the world is likely to be multipolar in the 21st century, and China most probably will not reach the hegemonic position enjoyed by US around 1950 with as much as 35-40 per cent of the world’s GDP.
Europe had a similar position around 1900-1910 with around 40-45 per cent of the world’s GDP, the report noted.
Latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report said India’s gross domestic product will be around $4.15 trillion in 2026 up from $3.92 trillion in 2025 while the UK’s GDP will touch $4.27 trillion up from $4 trillion in 2025.
The US GDP is expected to touch $32.38 trillion in 2026, while China, the second-largest economy, is pegged at $20.85 trillion.(Agency)
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