New Delhi, Oct 9 2024-
The election results of two states, Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, have been announced. In Haryana, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed strongly, winning 48 seats, while in Jammu and Kashmir, it secured 29 seats, making it the second-largest party in the region. Political analyst Professor Sangit Ragi shared his insights with IANS on these elections.
Reacting to Haryana results, Professor Ragi said that the Congress’ extensive propaganda efforts failed to gain traction. He suggested that the Congress aimed to consolidate Muslim and Jat votes but could not achieve that goal.
The apathy shown by voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections initially seemed detrimental to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but ultimately, it harmed the country as a whole, he said.
In response, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath launched a campaign emphasising unity, stating, “Batoge to katoge” (If you divide, you will perish), while Prime Minister Modi warned that if people remained divided, those benefiting from the division would celebrate. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat also emphasised the need for Hindus to organise for national security. These three messages were crucial in shaping voter sentiment. Then, the RSS conducted over 16,000 meetings in Haryana to galvanise support.
He further explained that previously indifferent party workers actively took to the streets this time, visited polling booths, and voted for the BJP. They felt that by not voting, they would empower forces detrimental to the interests of the country and the state. This shift had a significant impact on the Haryana elections. The increase in voter turnout among the general electorate was mirrored by a corresponding rise in the BJP’s voting percentage.
Overall, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP placed greater trust in its accomplishments. They believed they had worked for every segment of society, including Muslims, Muslim women, Dalits, and backward classes. There wasn’t a social group that PM Narendra Modi hadn’t reached out to. Despite these efforts, the results did not meet the expectations of the BJP or Prime Minister Modi.
The professor further stated that the voting behaviour of Muslim voters in the Lok Sabha elections was both shocking and disappointing. Despite the many benefits provided to Muslim women, such as access to housing and clean water, these voters chose to support parties that practised appeasement politics based on religion, rather than voting for progress and development.
He believes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi recognised this trend after the first phase of voting, which is why his tone and language shifted following that phase. When the election results were announced, the phenomenon of “vote jihad” became evident. While the BJP’s motto of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas” aims to foster trust among all communities, there seems to be a lack of reciprocal trust from the other side.
He further said that PM Modi has taken seriously the attempts by Congress and opposition parties to fragment Hindu society. He believes that foreign powers also wish to see Hindu society divided. This is why Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has emphasised the slogan “If you divide, you will perish,” which resonates with statements made by both PM Modi and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. These three messages converge to form a unified narrative.
In this context, the people of Haryana felt that if Hooda were to win, it would lead to the dominance of a specific lineage or caste, resulting in increased lawlessness. Drawing parallels to Uttar Pradesh, he noted that when Akhilesh Yadav came to power, members of the Yadav and Muslim communities took to the streets, creating a similar fear among voters. This apprehension has influenced voting patterns in Haryana.
To counter this perceived dominance, not only did non-Jatav voters mobilise, but the BJP also performed well in Jatland, securing significant support from the Jat community. This collective effort enabled them to win seven seats in these areas, Ragi added.
Regarding the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, Professor Sangit Ragi stated that there are 43 seats in Jammu and 47 in the Valley. He pointed out that voters in the Valley tend to cast their ballots based on Islam and religious identity, whether for extremist candidates like Rashid Engineer or established figures like Farooq Abdullah or the PDP. In contrast, Hindu voters in the Jammu region do not typically unite unless faced with significant challenges. This trend was evident in the recent elections, although not to the same extent as observed in the Valley.
He said that Hindu votes are generally secular, while Muslim votes are often communal. Muslim voters do not prioritise education, development, poverty alleviation, or healthcare; instead, they tend to vote based on perceived threats to their community. This pattern, seen in the Lok Sabha elections, was also reflected in the Valley.
It’s important to note that Muslims make up about 30-35 per cent of the population in Jammu. Given this demographic context, the BJP’s victory in 29 seats should not be underestimated, especially considering that the party had initially projected it would win around 35 seats across Jammu and Kashmir. (Agency)
