With just one year to go for the Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections, the political parties have started gearing up for the same. There is a race among the rival leaders to hurl abuses and allegations against one another.
The Punjab political parties have already tested their strength in the ‘semifinal’ polls in Feb. 2021 when they participated in the elections to the urban local bodies and Nagar panchayats. The ruling Congress has emerged stronger in these elections while the Shiromani Akali Dal has taken the second position.
The Shiromani Akali Dal failed to make any achievement in the election to eight municipal corporations which have been won by the Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the BJP have suffered a heavy setback in the local bodies’ elections despite their best efforts to make their presence felt.
In the emerging scenario, Punjab is going to witness multi-corner contests in the Vidhan Sabha poll. The four parties namely ruling Congress, BJP, Shiromani Akali Dal and AAP are the major contenders for power in the state. The Congress party is already in power with Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister and Amarinder’s personal popularity remains intact although the party will face the anti-incumbency charge.
The Shiromani Akali Dal has already ruled the Punjab state for a long time in collaboration with the BJP. But this time, Akali Dal and BJP will jump in the fray separately and individually while the fourth party AAP will again try its luck as it did in 2017.
This time, the AAP looks to be more confident compared with 2017 Vidhan Sabha election notwithstanding the fact that euphoria of this party in 2017 was much higher. No doubt the AAP emerged as the second-largest party after the Congress and the Akali Dal was decimated to poor third position with only 15 legislators in its kitty.
Although the ruling Congress party looks to be very confident to return to power again in the 2022 elections, yet it is faced with many problems. First and foremost is the internal dissensions in the party. Many senior leaders of the party are challenging the leadership of Amarinder, although he does not face any immediate threat to his leadership. Partap Singh Bajwa and Shamsher Singh Dullo the two former Presidents of the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee are continuing their tirade against Amarinder Singh.
Navjot Singh Sidhu another senior leader is also a threat to the Chief Minister. Harish Rawat, General Secretary of the AICC and in charge of Punjab affairs who has replaced Asha Kumari, has been trying to bring some sort of rapprochement between Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sidhu. He has held a number of meetings with both the leaders and even arranged lunch between Sidhu and Amarinder.
Rawat has been pleading the case of Navjot Sidhu who was divested of his portfolio of local bodies after the Lok Sabha poll in 2019. The Chief Minister offered him the portfolio of Power which Sidhu has not accepted. Sidhu has been depending on the support from the Gandhis – Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra but they have not been of much help so far.
Amarinder Singh is very strongly placed in the party and the high command cannot give him any dictation. He is a master of his own show. As a matter of fact, the Congress legislature party has not witnessed any big differences despite the fact that some sort of whispering continues among the party legislators. But so far Amarinder has proved to be an unchallenged leader of the party in Punjab.
Political observers feel that Navjot Sidhu has not acted maturely and he should have accepted the portfolio of power and continued in the cabinet. While sitting in the cabinet, he could raise his voice and express his views. He forgot the fact that it is the prerogative of the Chief Minister to allot any portfolio to his cabinet ministers.
In 1985, when Surjeet Singh Barnala became Chief Minister, Parkash Singh Badal wanted the second position with irrigation and power portfolio, Barnala denied this to him and Badal came out of the party with 26 legislators who were supporting him with the result that Barnala had to take shelter from the Congress party.
Sunil Jakhar who is the President of the PPCC has supported the leadership of Amarinder Singh and has claimed that he will be the face for Chief Ministership and the election would be held under Amarinder Singh’s leadership. But this has been challenged by Pargat Singh, MLA from Jalandhar Cantonment. Pargat Singh and Navjot Sidhu are close friends.
Although Sunil Jakhar continues to be the President of the PPCC, but there is no organizational structure at the district level and all the District Congress Committees were disbanded by the High Command which had not been reorganized so far. The Congress High Command itself is in disarray and the leadership seems to be deadwood.
If the Congress wins the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, it will be with the efforts of the Chief Minister, PPCC President and the cadre which is looking to receive some ‘Bonanza’ after the victory of the Congress. So far as the Shiromani Akali Dal is concerned it is also in distress as many senior leaders have left the party after the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections and formed their independent Akali Dal.
These include Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa who is heading the Akali Dal (Democratic) and Ranjit Singh Brahampura who is the president of the Akali Dal (Taksali). Despite these defections, the Shiromani Akali Dal still has its organization at the district level and the youth wing of the Akali Dal is also active.
Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa who was the first to revolt against the party leadership has his pockets in the Malwa belt while Brahampura has some say in the Majha belt.
However, resentment prevails against the Shiromani Akali Dal among the Sikhs-first because of the treatment given to Sacha Sauda Chief Ram Raheem by the Akali Dal when it was in power in 2015 and the pardon granted to Ram Raheem by the Akal Takhat at the instance of the Badals and later the incidents of sacrilege of Guru Granth Sahib and the police firing at Behbal Kalan and Kotkapura in which two Sikh youth were killed and the Panthic Morcha launched dharna for 198 days.
It was not the end of the woes of the Akali Dal. The stand taken by the Akali Dal on the issue of three farm laws passed by the NDA government also resulted in resentment among the Sikhs and the farmers of the Punjab state. Harsimrat Badal wife of Sukhbir Singh Badal had to resign from the Modi Government and break its relationship with the NDA when the resentment grew much higher.
Sukhbir Singh Badal and his wife Harsimrat Badal have been making strong attacks against the Modi government and extended their support to the All India agitation by 41 farmers unions since November 26 in Delhi borders. But still, the resentment prevails among the farming community and the Sikhs in general.
Sukhbir Singh Badal needs to change his attitude towards the general public and he should forget the fact that he is in the government. His brother-in-law Bikram Singh Majithia is doing rather well compared with Sukhbir and his wife. Bikram Majithia has succeeded in retaining the hold on Majithia Nagar Council and gave a crushing defeat to the Congress. This was a big achievement of Majithia.
The Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab is working very hard to grab power. The central party leadership has appointed Raghav Chadha as co-in-charge of the State unit with president Bhagwant Mann. Raghav Chadha is a hard-working leader of the party and is considered an intelligent leader but he could not cut much ice in the local bodies elections. His main thrust of the attack was on Amarinder Singh, Chief Minister, and propagation of the Delhi pattern of the government.
The AAP’s problem is that it does not a have good Sikh face for the Chief ministership in Punjab, only Sikh matters. The AAP is extending wholehearted support to the All India Kisan Agitation in Delhi. However, there is no NRI euphoria as was witnessed in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections.
Many senior party leaders have left the party owing to the bickerings which have given a setback to the party. AAP will have to find a Sikh face and work harder to retain their second position in the Vidhan S. The opposition leader Harpal Singh Cheema is a well-connected leader and takes up all the major issues facing the state.
The position of the BJP in Punjab is in the doldrums since it has separated from the Akali Dal and there is very strong resentment against it because of the three farm laws passed by the Modi Government which have been described by the kisan unions as death warrants of the kisans.
The leaders of the BJP have been claiming to contest elections independently and forming its government. But there are certain leaders of the BJP who are making propaganda against the farmers and describing them as Khalistanis and urban naxals. These leaders do not have a strong base among their own community but the BJP leadership at the national level has appointed them at important positions because they are allegedly creating communal tensions in the State.
The BJP can think of contesting the elections in Punjab only if the three farm laws are repealed by the NDA government. The state leadership needs to press upon the central leadership to repeal the farm laws and bring normalcy in Punjab and the country in general.
Besides, these four major political parties there are some small parties as well which are making strong preparations to fight the Vidhan Sabha election. The LIP (Lok Insaf Party) of Bains brothers, Punjab Ekta Party of Sukhpal Khaira, and the party setup by Dr. Dharamvir Gandhi of Patiala are also making a foray into the elections.
In the final analysis, the main contest in Punjab will be between the Congress and the Akali Dal led by Sukhbir Singh Badal as both these parties have their cadre intact. Punjab may witness some more changes if the All India Kisan agitation is settled in the near future.
There does not seem to be any immediate solution in sight because the NDA government has adopted a rigid attitude and the kisan unions are also adamant on their demand for repealing of the farm laws. Both the parties are sitting on prestige and the States are suffering because of the prolonged agitation. The people pray for the early settlement of the farmers’ agitation.
K S Chawla is a senior journalist based at Ludhiana.
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