New Delhi, November 11, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
The Indian rupee could weaken to 100 against the US dollar by June 2027 despite its recent stability, according to a report by Axis Bank Research. The report said a slowdown in global artificial intelligence (AI) investment and a possible reversal of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows could redirect international capital towards India.
Such a shift in global capital flows could potentially bring India’s financeable current account deficit (CAD) back to 0.8 per cent of GDP, the report said.
It highlighted that India’s foreign exchange reserve adequacy remains low under both traditional measures and the International Monetary Fund’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric, indicating the need to rebuild financial buffers.
The report also flagged sizeable external liabilities as a concern. It noted that the Reserve Bank of India holds significant short foreign exchange positions, with approximately $200 billion in maturities exceeding one year, including around $150 billion in the three-to-five-year maturity bracket.
According to the report, declining global savings and rising government debt amid geopolitical conflicts could restrict the availability of capital for investment in Indian assets.
It also observed that the rupee began losing value even when the current account deficit was low, suggesting that a decline in crude oil prices alone may not substantially change the currency outlook.
“Continued squeezing of global savings owing to fading of the peace dividend also limits availability of savings to chase India assets,” the report noted.
Separately, another report projected that India’s economy would maintain strong growth momentum in the second quarter of FY27 despite global uncertainties. It estimated GDP growth at around 7.8 per cent, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate performance and strong credit growth.
FOLLOW NOW
