New Delhi, September 12, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
Al Qaeda is seeking to regain ground lost to the Islamic State by moving back towards a centralised, personality-driven leadership model and placing greater emphasis on propaganda, recruitment and radicalisation, intelligence officials said.
The shift marks a departure from the regional structure that the organisation increasingly adopted after the killing of its founder, Osama bin Laden, by US forces in Pakistan in 2011.
Al Qaeda had already come under severe pressure from the US and other Western countries following the 9/11 attacks. Under bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the organisation moved towards a decentralised model in which affiliated groups operated across Africa, Arab countries and the Indian subcontinent.
Different regional leaders were tasked primarily with running operations, including Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Officials now believe the organisation is reconsidering that approach as it attempts to rebuild its influence.
“Al Qaeda realises that it has lost plenty of space to the Islamic State. Al Qaeda is also moving towards the Islamic State style whereby propaganda and radicalisation would be the primary driving factors,” an intelligence official said.
The organisation is also expected to focus on attacks requiring relatively little manpower, including the use of drones, the official said.
As part of the renewed personality-driven strategy, Al Qaeda’s media wing, Al Shahab, released a video featuring Hamza bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s designated heir.
An Intelligence Bureau official described the release as a strategic move. “If the footage is recent, then it can be presumed that Al Qaeda had claimed that Hamza had been killed only to protect him from a US strike,” the official said, noting that the footage was released on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
Another official said the move was aimed at boosting recruitment and expanding the organisation’s ideological reach. The Bin Laden name, officials said, carries particular resonance among potential recruits and could help Al Qaeda attract recruits away from the Islamic State.
Osama bin Laden had become a cult figure within the organisation and his name helped attract recruits from across the world. Officials believe the brand continues to have appeal in parts of India as well.
For Al Qaeda, the Indian subcontinent remains a major focus, with AQIS receiving greater attention than its affiliates in the Arab and African regions.
The Hamza bin Laden video also highlights a naval strike in Karachi attributed to AQIS. Launched in 2014, AQIS was established to operate in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, with the broader objective of establishing a presence in the subcontinent and targeting India.
The group has repeatedly focused on the Kashmir issue and attempted to carry out attacks in India. However, officials and counter-terrorism experts believe its activities have failed to gain significant momentum in the absence of a prominent leadership figure.
Experts say Al Qaeda is therefore likely to return to a model centred on a single leadership structure rather than separate provinces or regions.
“It would be personality-driven and will be a single unit and not province- or region-based,” counter-terrorism experts said.
The strategic shift could intensify competition between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State for influence and recruits in India. Al Qaeda maintains some presence in parts of northern India, while its earlier influence in southern India was stronger before the rise of the Islamic State.
Prior to the Islamic State’s emergence, Al Qaeda-linked operations in South India were associated with the Base Movement in Kerala. The network subsequently faded and currently exists largely on paper, according to officials.
Security agencies could face an additional challenge if Al Qaeda succeeds in reviving its network, with officials warning that they may have to counter two competing organisations pursuing similar extremist objectives while the Islamic State continues its radicalisation efforts.
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