New Delhi, Nov 26 2024-
Beset by the lack of a majority and disarray among the ruling coalition, growing differences with President Emmanuel Macron over economic policies, and the opposition ganging up against him over his Budget moves, Prime Minister Michel Barnier is in an unenviable position as France stares at a fresh spell of political turmoil.
Without the necessary numbers in the National Assembly to support his Budget, Barnier has termed “probable” the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the budget bill without a vote next month.
This step has already led the left bloc National Popular Front, which, with 192 members, is the biggest bloc in the 577-member house, to propose a vote of no-confidence. It also expressed opposition to several proposals in the Budget, which seeks to save the government 60 billion euros in order to rein in the fiscal deficit.
The problem for Barnier arose with the far-right National Rally, which has 124 members – or 140 if its ally Eric Ciotti and his faction of The Republicans are added, said it could support the left in its measure.
As the ruling coalition, of Barnier’s right-wing The Republicans and the centrists of Macron’s Ensemble Alliance, can muster around 210 votes, the numbers are stacked against them.
This led the Premier, who has been in the post for less than two months, to reach out to NR’s leader Marine Le Pen, but their meeting on Monday provided no relief as she said that her position had not changed, any more than had Barnier’s. Le Pen specifically mentioned her “red lines” being crossed by the proposed raise of the electricity taxes.
She unequivocally said that her party would support the no-confidence motion, but maintained that the budget’s rejection would not cause turmoil and chaos.
PM Barnier was due to meet leaders of other parties, including the radical Left France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Melenchon, but it seemed unlikely to cause a change, given Melenchon has predicted the fall of Barnier’s government well before Christmas as December 21 is the last date for the passage of the Budget.
Yet, Barnier’s problems are not limited to the opposition.
He has raised concerns in Macron’s Ensemble by indicating that he is not a full supporter of “Macronomics”, or the President’s economic policies being followed since 2017, with at least two proposals, concerning corporate and household taxes, and exemptions from employers’ social security contributions, diverging widely from the prevailing orthodoxy.
The changes, the Macron bloc contends, will deter growth and destroy employment. On the other hand, some lawmakers from Barnier’s part question him for not breaking sufficiently from Macronism.
Meanwhile, while Barnier’s authority or influence on the ruling coalition is not much, there is growing friction between his party leader in the Assembly, Laurent Wauquiez, and Macron’s Renaissance group leader and former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. This does not presage to be a very optimum set of affairs for a minority government, hemmed in by two groups on opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Barnier had recently expressed how he was not very enamoured of his post, telling a group of elected representatives from local authorities that his current position, amid political polarisation and deadlock, was “extremely frustrating”.
Ultimately, the question boils down to the prospects before President Macron, who is around midway in his second and final term but has repeatedly ruled out the prospect of quitting before his tenure ends in 2027. If the Barnier government should fall over the budget, Macron can reappoint the same Prime Minister or select a new one, bring in a government of technocrats, call a referendum – or quit. A new election is out of the question till the middle of 2025.
Should by some miracle, the Budget pass, the current crisis will be averted but the threat of deadlock and confrontation will continue as both the Left and Right are united in their opposition to Macron, who ignited the whole problem by calling a snap parliamentary election earlier this year after a drubbing in the European Parliament elections.
As Le Pen’s National Rally made a strong showing in the first round, Macron stitched a marriage of convenience with the NPF that did halt it in its tracks but left it angered. Next, he antagonised his erstwhile tactical allies on the Left by refusing to invite them to form the government as it would not be stable.
Ultimately, it will cast a deep shadow over President Macron’s legacy.
In the larger picture, the political instability in France, along with neighbour Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition has broken down and new elections are slated amid a similar polarised scenario, portends trouble for both countries as well as the European Union, whose mainstays they are. (Agency)
