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Innocent Admission

Exit Polls not perfect for Lok Sabha elections

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New Delhi, May 19, 2019-

If exit polls are to be believed, the Narendra Modi government is coming back to power with full majority, but the predictions by poll survey agencies in the past have found not to be close to the actual results.

Riding on ‘Modi wave’, National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had won 336 seats in 2014 parliamentary elections. None of the major pollsters except Today’s Chanakya had expected the NDA’s tally would cross the 300 mark.

Chanakya had projected 340 seats for the NDA and 291 for the BJP. The BJP won 282 seat.

However, other exit polls failed to assess the voters’ mood with accuracy.

ABP-Nielsen had given 281 seats to NDA while Times Now foresaw 249 seats.

CNN-IBN- CSDS Lokniti showed that the number to be between 272-280

Among others, Headlines Today and India TV- C Voter predicted that the NDA may bag 261-283 and 289 seats, respectively.

Similarly, predictions went wrong in 2009 when exit polls showed the NDA would snatch power from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

However, the UPA managed to remain in the power with Congress increasing its tally to 206 from 145 in 2004.

The NDA scored 159 seats as against prediction of 197 by Star News-AC Nielsen and 183 by Times Now. Other polls, NDTV, and Headlines Today had given the NDA 177 and 180, respectively.

In 2004, Outlook-MDRA and Star-C-Voter had predicted incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee government returning to power again by giving the 290 seats and 275 seats for the NDA, respectively.

Other pollsters, Aaj Tak, and NDTV also had expected the NDA to do better than Congress and allies by giving it 248-250 seats.

However, all exit polls were wide off the mark as the NDA could bag 159 seats while the Congress and allies, which went on to form government later under UPA banner, won 262 seats.

These pollsters, except NDTV, had predicted that Congress and allies would be restricted to 200 seats.  (Agency)

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