As Canada contemplates the delicate balance between welcoming international students and temporary workers and addressing economic concerns, a cautionary report from Montreal-based Desjardins Securities emphasizes the potential repercussions.
Closing doors to these vital contributors could not only impede Canada’s economic recovery but also plunge the nation deeper into a recession, as highlighted in a recent analysis.
Critical Findings from Desjardins Securities:
GDP Growth Scenarios: Desjardins Securities projects that the real GDP will see modest growth of 0.1% in 2024 and an average of approximately 1.95% annually from 2025 to 2028.
Impact of Restricting Entry: The report suggests that shutting doors to temporary residents could lead to a significant drop in real GDP by 0.7% in 2024. Subsequently, the country would experience an average annual growth of 1.78% over the following four years.
Alternative Approach: Conversely, if Canada doubles the pace of non-permanent resident admissions, it could mitigate the economic slowdown and potentially avoid a recession. The real GDP, in this case, is projected to grow by 1% in 2024 and exceed 2.1% on average afterward.
Insights from Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ Senior Director of Canadian Economics:
Bartlett emphasizes that adjusting the pace of admitting non-permanent residents is a crucial factor in determining the economic trajectory.
Doubling admissions could lead to a milder economic slowdown, fostering stronger growth for the nation.
