Washington, October 13, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
The artificial intelligence investment boom is widening economic disparities across countries, boosting technology exporters such as Taiwan and South Korea while putting energy-importing economies under pressure from higher costs linked to the Middle East conflict, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF described the emerging situation as a “split global economy”, in which countries benefiting from technology-related exports and investment are better positioned to absorb external shocks, while others face rising import bills and weaker demand.
Taiwan is projected to record the strongest growth among the economies highlighted in the report, with its economy expected to expand by 10.7 per cent in 2026, compared with 8.8 per cent in 2025. Growth is forecast to slow to 4.3 per cent in 2027.
South Korea’s growth is projected to rise to 3.3 per cent in 2026 from 1.1 per cent last year, supported by strong global demand for semiconductors, which the IMF said was outweighing the negative effects of the Middle East war.
Vietnam is forecast to grow by 8.4 per cent and Malaysia by 5.2 per cent in 2026. The Fund attributed the outlook for several Southeast Asian economies partly to expanding data-centre activity and an upturn in the global technology cycle.
However, the benefits of the AI boom remain concentrated in a limited number of economies. Taiwan and South Korea account for 62 per cent of net trade in computing hardware related to AI, according to the report.
On the demand side, China and the United States accounted for more than 75 per cent of net imports of AI-related computing hardware in 2025 and 57 per cent of newly built data centres since 2024.
The IMF said net trade in AI hardware had increased sharply as a share of global GDP, with the change driven by prices rather than volumes. It cautioned that the technology boom was unlikely to benefit all economies equally.
Energy-importing countries with limited links to the technology supply chain face a particularly difficult combination of higher import costs, currency pressures, reduced purchasing power and tighter government finances. Many low-income and vulnerable economies fall into this category, raising the risk of widening income gaps both between and within countries.
India, however, stands apart from this pattern. Its growth is being supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity rather than semiconductor exports. The IMF excluded India from the group of energy-importing emerging economies facing medium-term growth downgrades.
The Fund also highlighted the importance of AI adoption and reliable energy supplies for long-term economic prospects, warning that countries heavily dependent on fossil fuels for power generation are more exposed to geopolitical shocks.
At the same time, it cautioned that the productivity benefits of AI remain uncertain. While some studies indicate substantial gains for specific tasks, the effects observed across entire economies have been relatively modest.
The IMF identified a reassessment of AI-driven growth expectations as a key downside risk. If anticipated productivity and profitability gains fail to materialise, investment in AI infrastructure and technology could slow sharply.
It also warned that equity markets heavily concentrated in AI companies could face a broad repricing, pointing to recent volatility in technology stocks in South Korea and the United States.
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