New Delhi, Jan 31, 2026
The Indian Intelligence agencies have warned of severe violence in Bangladesh on February 12 when the parliamentary elections and national referendum would be held simultaneously.
The ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Islami will watch how the elections are shaping up. If they feel that they are not in the reckoning, then scores of radical elements would be unleashed on the streets of the country. The violence is expected to be severe in nature, Intelligence agencies say.
The fight would be a direct one between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat. The ISI wants the Jamaat to win at any cost, so that it can continue to exercise control over the country. Under Muhammad Yunus, Pakistan has been given several exceptions that include easy travel, trade and arms deals, among others.
Bangladesh watchers say that if the BNP is in power, Pakistan would definitely have a role to play. However, what Pakistan would not want is for Bangladesh to indulge with India. A BNP government would entertain Pakistan, but would also deal with India, as the leadership is clear that it wants good ties with all its neighbours.
However, if a Jamaat is in power, it would be nothing but a puppet of the ISI. It would implement everything that Pakistan would tell it to. This is the reason why Pakistan wants a Jamaat government at any cost.
Moreover, if the Jamaat is in power, then there is every chance that Yunus would be made President of the country. There have been many meetings between Yunus, the ISI and the Jamaat leadership where his presidency has been discussed. In a bid to become President, Yunus has made several exceptions for both Pakistan and the Jamaat.
After Yunus came to power, the first thing he did was to lift the ban on the Jamaat. He also, at the insistence of the outfit, has released several hardcore radicals and terrorists. These were all well-planned moves so that these persons could indulge in large-scale violence to tilt things in favour of the Jamaat, officials say.
Currently, the BNP has an edge over the Jamaat. If this continues into election day, then violence is certain. Every attempt would be made to put off the elections so that the existing interim government could continue to rule, officials say.
While plans to incite violence are already in place, the Election Commission of Bangladesh wants the entire process to pass off smoothly. It has ordered government officials to refrain from campaigning for a ‘Yes’ vote in the referendum.
It said that such a campaign would influence the outcome of the referendum. If the voters endorse the July Charter by voting ‘Yes’ during the referendum, the new Parliament will be legally bound to implement the 84 reform proposals. These include major Constitutional changes, and this would affect the executive power, judiciary, election process and structure of the state. Further, it would also change the identity of the state by replacing the term ‘Bengali’ with ‘Bangladeshi.’
Anticipating large-scale violence during which the minorities would be targeted heavily, the Indian borders are on a state of ‘very high alert.’ Attempts would be made to infiltrate the northeastern states and West Bengal during this time. The patrolling along the border areas has increased to prevent an influx of illegal immigration, officials say.
Even the US Embassy has issued an alert on election day. “Bangladesh will hold parliamentary elections and a national referendum simultaneously on February 12. During the election period, political violence or extremist attacks may occur, potentially targeting rallies, polling stations, and religious sites. US citizens should remain vigilant, avoid demonstrations, and exercise caution near any large gatherings,” the US Embassy said on X.
US nationals have been monitoring local news, carry charged mobile phones for emergencies, plan alternative travel routes and keep a low profile. This comes in the backdrop of the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Brent T. Christensen, meeting with Jamaat chief Shafiqul Rahman.
Following the meeting, he said, “I heard Jamaat Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman’s perspectives on the upcoming elections. The United States looks forward to working with all Bangladeshi political parties to advance shared peace and prosperity.”
The Bangladesh elections would be held on February 12. There are nearly 2,000 candidates in the fray from over 50 political parties and independent contenders. The battle is for the 300 seats.(Agency)
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