New Delhi, Jan 7, 2025
In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.
The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.
As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.
In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.
The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.
In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.
In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.
This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.
The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.
Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.
If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.
The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.
Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.
“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.
Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.
An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.
Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.
The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.
The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.(Agency)
