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Online tool identifies Covid patients at highest risk of deterioration

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London, Jan 9, 2021-
A new risk-stratification tool, which can accurately predict the likelihood of deterioration in adults hospitalised with Covid-19, has been developed by a team of researchers, including an Indian-origin.

According to the researchers, the online tool could support clinicians’ decision making — helping to improve patient outcomes and ultimately save lives.

“Accurate risk-stratification at the point of admission to hospital will give doctors greater confidence about clinical decisions and planning ahead for the needs of individual patients,” said co-author Mahdad Noursadeghi, Professor at University College London.

The tool assesses 11 measurements routinely collected from patients, including age, gender, and physical measurements (such as oxygen levels) along with some standard laboratory tests and calculates a percentage risk of deterioration, known as the ‘4C Deterioration Score’.

This innovation builds on the Consortium’s previous work developing the ‘4C Mortality Score’ to predict the percentage risk of death from Covid-19 after admission to hospital.

“The addition of the new 4C Deterioration Score alongside the 4C Mortality Score will provide clinicians with an evidence-based measure to identify those who will need increased hospital support during their admission, even if they have a low risk of death,” Noursadeghi added.

For the study, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, the team involved 74,944 individuals with Covid-19 admitted to 260.

Using a multivariable logistic regression model (where several measures are used to predict an outcome), researchers tested the 11 measures against the large patient cohort, to establish how, and to what to degree each of the measures affected the likelihood of deterioration.

“Our analysis provides very encouraging evidence that the 4C Deterioration tool is likely to be useful for clinicians across England, Scotland and Wales to support clinical decision-making,” said first author Rishi Gupta from University College London.

Researchers suggest that the tool could also be used in other countries for risk-stratification, but should first be evaluated to test its accuracy in these settings. (Agency)

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