New Delhi, April 16, 2026
India’s external position showed resilience in March 2026 as the goods trade deficit fell to $21 billion due to a sharp fall in precious‑metal imports and a rebound in exports, a report said on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a robust services sector surplus continued to offset the higher goods deficit, the report from Emkay Global Financial Services noted.
India’s total imports fell about 6 per cent month‑on‑month to $59.6 billion, and total exports rose 6 per cent to $38.9 billion. Net services exports rose to $18.2 billion in March, with FY26 seeing healthy growth of 13 per cent.
Notably, oil imports fell around 6 per cent MoM, despite the sharply higher prices, likely reflecting a 35-40 per cent fall in volume with the Strait of Hormuz closure. FY26 exports grew 1 per cent, but the US tariff hit was mitigated via destination diversification.
The reduction in the goods trade deficit was mainly due to gold import value dipping 59 per cent and silver imports dropping 63 per cent MoM.
With Strait of Hormuz flows being largely curtailed, the crude oil import volume hit may have been as high as 35-40 per cent. Oil exports, on the other hand, rose around 51 per cent MoM to $5.2 billion, touching the highest level since May 2025, with global prices for refined products having spiked.
Notably, exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE fell 44 per cent and 60 per cent MoM, respectively, due to the conflict – and this is likely to have contributed to the around 22 per cent MoM decline in the export of gems and jewellery.
The report forecasted a baseline scenario for fiscal 2027, assuming Brent at $80 per barrel, to estimate a current account deficit of about 1.7 per cent of GDP and a balance of payments shortfall of over $35 billion
Services exports have been resilient in FY26, helped by GCCs, but may face headwinds in FY27 from a global growth shock if the Middle East crisis is protracted, the firm projected.(Agency)
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