Kolkata, August 24, 2026 (Yes Punjab News)
El Niño has strengthened and is expected to remain strong through the July-September season, with prolonged warming likely to affect marine ecosystems, fisheries and coastal conditions across the North Indian Ocean, according to the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS).
In its latest report, published on August 15, INCOIS said persistent El Niño conditions could lead to higher sea surface temperatures, increased upper-ocean heat content, stronger ocean stratification and widespread marine heatwaves.
The agency expects a modest decline in landings of small pelagic fish such as Indian oil sardine and Indian mackerel during the upcoming fishing season, along with a possible reduction in their average size. Changes in ocean productivity and fish habitats could also alter the distribution and availability of commercially important species.
Marine heatwave conditions are already widespread across the northern Indian Ocean, with moderate-to-extreme events reported across substantial parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Prolonged warming could increase thermal stress on coral reefs and raise the risk of coral bleaching.
INCOIS also warned that altered ocean temperatures and productivity could affect fishing conditions and Potential Fishing Zone advisories. Coastal areas may remain vulnerable to localised erosion, flooding and storm-surge impacts during severe weather.
The agency has urged fishermen, maritime operators, coastal communities, tourism stakeholders and disaster-management authorities to monitor its ocean services, including Ocean State Forecasts, High Wave Alerts, Swell Advisories, Storm Surge Forecasts and Coastal Inundation Services. It will also continue issuing Marine Heatwave Advisory System, Coral Bleaching and Harmful Algal Bloom advisories.
According to the report, El Niño is expected to remain the dominant ENSO phase from August 2026 through most of the forecast period to March 2027, with probabilities ranging between 80 and 98 per cent. ENSO-neutral conditions are projected at 5-20 per cent during August 2026-March 2027, rising to around 45 per cent by April 2027, while La Niña remains below 2 per cent through April 2027.
INCOIS noted that El Niño can adversely affect Indian summer monsoon rainfall and significantly alter ocean conditions, with implications for fisheries, coral reef health, coastal hazards and maritime activities.
The World Meteorological Organization has separately said El Niño is intensifying and is expected to dominate global climate patterns during August-October 2026.
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